ESPN’s latest projections for the 2026-27 season have the San Antonio Spurs finishing 62-20, tied for the best projected record in the league and first in the Western Conference. That mirrors the Spurs’ actual record from last season, when they won 62 games and reached the 2026 NBA Finals before losing to the New York Knicks in five games. ESPN’s forecast has Oklahoma City close behind at a projected 60-22, with the network describing the West as running through either the Thunder or the Spurs.
The projection is notable less for the number itself and more for what it signals. Last season, a 62-win Spurs team was the league’s breakout story. This time, an identical projection reads as an expectation of sustained excellence rather than a repeat surprise. San Antonio’s core is expected to return largely intact, including Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Carter Bryant and Tobias Harris. That continuity is a big reason forecasters see so little regression: there is no obvious hole to fill and no proven contributor departing.
The harder part for Wembanyama and the Spurs is what a matching record would actually mean this time. A trip back to 62 wins would look identical on paper to last season. But an early playoff exit this time would read as a disappointment rather than a continuation of a breakthrough, since San Antonio is now being projected as the team to beat rather than a rising one. That shift, from surprise contender to presumed favorite, is the real story inside the number.
ESPN’s projections are a preseason exercise, not a guarantee, and camp battles, injuries and early results can still reshape the picture before opening night.
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